CRE Crisis

Wasn't commercial real estate supposed to crash?

Source: money.cnn.com

"During the long years of the financial crisis, the American economy has been like a retelling of the Somerset Maugham story "Appointment in Samarra," in which a man unsuccessfully runs from city to city in attempts to avoid a run-in with Death -- who, of course, is one step ahead of him. Similarly, investors have now spent years dodging disaster in one area of the markets, only to find their investments coming to a bad end elsewhere.

Oddly, however, there is one sector that has been outrunning the reaper since 2007, and it's the last place you'd expect to have survived so long: commercial real estate. For much of 2008 and 2009 CRE was awash in red ink, and yet it hangs on. Richard LeFrak, chairman of the LeFrak Organization, said at the Milken Institute Global Conference in April, "The failure that we were all anticipating in the commercial real estate market, it kind of didn't happen. We blinked, it went away."

The only question now is how long it can keep up the sprint while the ghosts of boom-time leverage haunt the sector, and $1.4 trillion in loan maturities loom three years over the horizon."

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